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This evolution would be particularly important in much of the South, which very greatly needs to shift toward general farming, wdth forage and cereals and livestock as the main lines and cotton and tobacco as supplementary cash crops. 2 Hence one cannot be certain whether rigid wages would permit more employment than competitive wage cutting. 370 P O S T W A R E C O N O M I C P R OB L E MS It will be of the greatest importance whether or not the lending country requires that the proceeds of the loan (or the funds provided for other forms of investment) be spent in buying imports from itself.
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Other areas, such as the center of aircraft production in San Diego, Calif., have doubled and then doubled again the manufacturing labor force engaged in war indus tries whose products now have no foreseeable postwar demand. There is no question here of assessing responsibility. The trend in the terms of trade against primary products in favor of industrial goods may be expected to continue after the war, unless further steps are taken to correct it, because of the wartime expansion in agricultural and raw-material capacity and the accelerated development of manufactured substitutes for natural commodities * That this trend has been disturbing to the main tenance of international trade equilibrium under an open system cannot be doubted. Those executives and shareholders are not only in a less favorable position to defend their ground than were the ownermanagers of old but they meet attack in a much weaker spirit. We shall decide whether the best potentiali ties of the mid-nineteenth century, frustrated by resurgent economic nationalism and Prussian militarism, will be realized in an again prosperous, progressive world; or whether the world will quickly resume a political and economic trend which the defeat of Germany is intended to reverse. Even in 1940, Federal income and excess proBts taxes took $2. Prestige consumer healthcare company. One great error in the last peace lay in the effort to impose political organization and integration in the face of economic dis organization and separatism. This tetrahydrad organization proved its undoing. 6 (June, 1942), p. 132. EC O N O M Y OF BLOCS 329 In the comparatively libera! A very different story is to be told for other countries. The essential correctness of this view has been indicated even during the short period of wartime price control which has thus far transpired. Its future size and importance must be estimated, and manifestly the assumptions made in this regard will have to be reviewed and verified by one or more larger units of government—perhaps the Federal government.
Such right is given under a number of agreements. Households............................ Total outlay 54 63 36 27 45 9 45 9 9 36 Total output 63 45 90 45 ____ The assumed figures in the top row show that the total output of the war supplies industry is valued during a given year at $63 mil lion, of which $36 million are purchased by the government, $18 mil lion are used in civilian production, and $9 million are destined for household consumption. Consumer products direct prestige wwc solutions. Her allies, however, might reasonably ask her to eschew barter trade or, at least, to eschew practices of discriminating monopoly in her dealings with different nations; and Russia has little to lose, even on a short-sighted view, by making such concessions. In the depres sion, we sought escape from afflictions by plunging on toward collectivism and by fostering an aggressive syndicalism from which absolutism is the only easy escape.
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The result is unlikely, however, if we assume a war short enough that controls continue to be regarded as "emergency" in character and our frame of reference remains one in which the presence of the direct price controls now developing is regarded as "abnormal. " To vest the planning agency with all authority necessary to formulate and keep up to date the master plan. 7 billion spent by the government in the years 1931-1938, $14. He feels the burden whether he is a laborer with out bonds or a capitalist holding Federal issues. This means that rigid w ages may have little or no favorable effects upon the propensity to consume, L A B O R A F T E R THE WA R 249 more readily in response to unfavorable influences than to favorable ones. But the escape has been only partial at best, for the people have to come back into the towns to work; and meanwhile the con gestion, if not the overcrowding, is made worse instead of better. Not only does consumption at the same income levels increase secularly, but our rudimentary statistical data indicate that in each decade for the half century prior to 1929 about the same percentage of national income was saved. It is politically difBcult to justify gifts from surplus to deBcit countries on either of these grounds. Even though there is no period of acute deflation, our agriculture in the United States will be faced with the need for some important * Black, op. Prestige products and prices. Thus, a proposal for international currency "backed by gold" might appeal to the popular imagina tion and lead to a wave of sentiment for an international monetary authority, the powers of which are really the crucial matter.
If it were enough to induce everybody to make his maximum effort in the social interest, we could immediately abolish private property and move directly into the last idyllic stage of communism. ALAN SWEEZY I The theory of secular stagnation is rooted historically in business-cycle analysis. The most obvious one has to do with money and debt, or rather with our traditional notions about them. In a highly fluctuating society such as we have known, normal proRts are some sort of average of good times and bad times. Thus the increase in population brings new expenses but no new revenue. Accumulation at the rate of $30 billion plus interest charges will produce a debt of $4, 000 billion in 53 years. We do not want to retrain men for public work, and then have to retrain them again for private enterprise after a few months. For these reasons, England may show less resistance to reform than the United States. To a first approximation, with given technology and capital, the level of employment is determined as soon as the level of income is given, increasing as the latter does. Finally, we shall assume that the "transition" is expected to last only 1 "year"* and that all the work is to be done in that time.
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Today we recognize it. Clearly, transfers of $20 billion from labor and agricultural incomes to rentiers would be accepted by labor and agriculture only under strong protest. Similarly, the government has assumed responsibility for medical and hospital care for civilian war victims and, in connection with this service, has given financial assistance for hospital improvements and extensions. To aid and encourage the governmental bodies in wisely programing for a period of years their services and improvements, on a priority basis of relative need and expediency. In 35 of the 48 states, taxable incomes of $5, 000 and over amounted to less than 10 per cent of total income payments within the state. While less flexible than housing construction, the manufacture, dis tribution, and servicing of consumers' durable goods at full employ-* ment will absorb greater numbers of workers from war industries and the armed forces. Some, like the railroad or electric power, require a large initial investment per dollar's worth of final product, others, like radio or synthetic yam, a relatively small invest ment. In general, this problem consists of assuring reasonable conformity of the data submitted to the data from which the labor and materials patterns were derived. Medical care, in the United States as elsewhere, has long been furnished under a mixed system of private and public care. On the one hand, a reinvigor 408 P O S T W A R E C O N O M I C P R O B L E MS ated antitrust policy was endeavoring to foster competition. Most significant is the fact that the states and localities which had been hit the hardest could not obtain credit at all and were forced to default, to slash services, and, in some cases, to resort to the practice of printing script Certain economic problems connected with nonfederal borrowing should be noted. Two remaining sources of demand have to be looked into in order to complete the foregoing model.
As thus defined, sociat security is broader than social insurance, although the latter term is often loosely used to include social assistance and integrated social security systems. The government merely takes a larger part in investment activity, which in turn becomes of increasing impor tance relative to consumption. Professor Schumpeter, for instance, leaves population growth entirely out of his theory of economic development. At the least, they suggest the important problems; at the most, they propose speciRc solutions. Brazil has extended its previously very limited pension insurance system to substantially all employees except agricultural workers, and, under it, affords combined old-age, invalidity, and survivors' insurance protection. While the physical mobility of the overwhelming majority of the world remains limited, there is great mobility of ideas, including the idea of what constitutes an adequate standard of living. A reallocation of functions and of taxes which resulted in a larger scope for national fiscal policy would enhance the Reid for coordinated and flexible financial programs. 92 POSTWAR ECONOMIC PROBLEMS Basse Assumptions.
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In order to provide themselves with a further outlet, investors would have to give away still more of what investment income they had left (the original gift being repeated of course in each succeeding income period, otherwise consumer demand would sink back to its original level). That the total tax bill will then come to $80 billion plus an esti mated $35 billion for nondebt purposes may be a source of anxiety to many. Indeed, their whole contention is that, if we produce a large output, private capital expenditures will not be large enough to absorb that part of the proceeds from the sale of output left over in the form of savings after consumers' expenditures. 372 P O S T W A R E C O N O M I C P R O B L E MS There will be risks of loss even apart from the transfer problem. Likewise, if we win the physical combat but lose the peace through stupidity in providing for a postwar world in which nations have a practical opportunity to live in peace and security, then, also, we may find it necessary to continue an economy designed essentially for purposes of war rather than of peace.
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At the present, statistical summaries describing the over-all size and characteristics of these industries are not available, primarily for the reason that as yet the future of international commerce is not being dealt with in terms that identify the industries which will be affected. It may mean also that space will have to be provided for small airplane landing Reids; for if the number of airplanes in use should ever become remotely comparable to the number of automobiles, they will have to be landed in the middle of town rather than away out in the country. THE FUTURE OF THE PUBLIC DEBT In a recent budget speech, President Roosevelt commented on a rise of national income of $30 billion above the depression level, and a rise in the annual cost of debt servicing of only $400 million. And even in the POSTWAR PRIVATE INVESTING 87 depressed coal industry, new mines and fields continued to be opened up. Technological change is still going on at a rapid rate, and, so far as anyone can see, it is likely to continue for a long time to come. Would it be better (as our critics say) Rrst to be confronted with the numerous postwar problems and then to study them? BALANCE SHEET OF THE FUTURE With the theory of income determination outlined in the previ ous section we are now in a position to evaluate the factors favorable and unfavorable to high levels of employment in the postwar years. I shall mention two only. Is there any hope, then, that it will be possible to main tain reasonably full employment for more than a few years through reliance upon private investment? 7M (w Fortunately, fairly reliable information is available on the next step for investigation, the disposal of income. International monetary control in active and positive roles could, and indeed "must, " follow the liberation of trade from restrictive and discriminatory devices. 11 If the type of program contemplated in this book is to be general and most effective, it must involve international investment on a large scale. Centralization, in fact, is, like "planning/' merely a weasel word for collectivism; and it presents, with minor differences in degree, the same obstacles to world order. Should the increases in productivity upon which all the above estimates are based tower prices below the hypothesized levels, only a scale change in the value of various magnitudes will be required.
Current and prospective strides in aviation increase the feasibility of political, economic, and military collabora tion. From mid-1919 to the end of 1920 American industry spent unprecedentedly large sums upon gross plant and equipment. Moreover, while men wrote of technology as a force making for monopoly via large-scale pro duction, they rarely mentioned technology as a force which tended also constantly to blur the boundaries separating particular "markets" and "commodities" from another. In reality, once the process becomes cumulative, national income may plunge still lower.
The hungry are to be fed in the countries released from the dictators, and, after that, the diets of the multi tudes in the crowded regions of Europe and Asia are to be supplemented with the needed protective foods. Also, from a sel6sh point of view of the country or of large groups (e. p., labor) in the country into which immigration is to take place, much more serious objections can be raised against free immigration than against the free importation of goods. Not one of these many balances, only a few of which are mentioned above, can be considered in isolation. It was presided over by Governor Paul V. McNutt, administrator of the Federal Security Agency, and coordi nator of defense health and welfare services. Strateg ically, the position of the latter program for the United States has in its favor the fact that bilateral payment arrangements, quotas, direct prohibitions, and discriminatory practices have prevailed only during the war period, and probably have not, except for protective tariffs, come to be regarded as a part of the American * C/- Bissell, op. It means that, in the matter of foods, we are ready to accept scientific truths in place of the traditions and superstitions of the past. Although the total output figures can be inter preted as describing the total physical output of each particular industry, the total outlay figures placed at the bottom of each column must now, however, be entirely ignored. Definitely indi cated would be the proposed use of every square foot of the area, whether for public purposes or for leasing to private enterprise; and such use would be determined without regard to acquisition cost of the land.
While it should promote and facilitate international cooperation in many phases of government, the economic-policy framework of all its activities should he determined principally in the three areas of commcrcial, monetary, and mo nopoly policy. First, goods and funds will be needed in large volume to initiate the rehabilitation and reconstruction of Europe and the Far East.